How I predicted Australia's first Pentecostal Prime Minister, 13 years before it happened.
Movements begin on the fringe and then move to the centre. Pentecostalism is moving into the cultural mainstream of Australian society. I expect Australian Pentecostalism to continue to grow and adapt much to the dismay of those on the theological and political left. If history repeats itself, eventually we'll have a Pentecostal Prime Minister. Meanwhile the secularized mainstream denominations will barely survive on external life support.
In 2006 I wrote about the rise of a new form of Pentecostalism in Australia and predicted that eventually Australia would have a Pentecostal Prime Minister. I repeated the prediction in October 2009. In May 2019 that prediction became a reality with the election of Prime Minister Scott Morrison.
How did I know? It’s happened all before. The Methodists were once a dynamic missionary movement multiplying disciples and churches on the US frontier. Methodism was a revivalist movement, known for its wild camp meetings, evangelistic passion, strict discipline, and popularity among women and African Americans. It was pioneered by unqualified young men on horseback and local volunteers.
By the time Rutherford B. Hayes became the first Methodist to occupy the White House in 1877, Methodism was already well into its long decline. The Methodists were building seminaries and universities, the circuit riders were trading their mobile mission to become settled pastors.
I wrote this warning in 2006.
Success may eventually change the Pentecostal movement. As movements shift into the mainstream they become more rational, conformist and risk-averse. Expect “How to speak in tongues” to lose out to “10 Rules for Business Success”. Expect “How to plant a church” to lose out to “Growing what we've got bigger”. Expect “brother Ted Smith” to become “Rev Dr Edward Smith”.
Plateaued movements have too big a stake in this world to worry about the next. Led by the clergy, they begin to reflect the views of the cultural and social elites.
That's the bad news. The good news is that (1) there are exceptions to this trend and (2) God is in the business of raising up new movements—on the fringe.
Learn more about the Rise and Fall of Movements and what to do about it.
