The Christian Century has some bad news for the US church. . .
Every year about 3,700 churches close their doors in the US. That’s one in one hundred churches. That makes 3,700 new churches required each year in the US just to maintain the status quo – if you forget about population growth.
Now for the good news - a 1% mortality rate is pretty good for an institution. Rates of closure for secular organizations are higher.
The bad news? This doesn’t mean that the church population is particularly healthy relative to other kinds of organizations.
Whereas in other arenas the weakest organizations shut down, the weakest churches have ways of staying alive for a longer time. So a very low mortality rate doesn’t necessarily mean a superhealthy church population.
The research reveals that up to half of the closed churches are new churches that did not survive. That’s bad news? No that’s good news!
David Olson says, a “surprising fact” is that mainline churches tend to have lower closure rates than evangelical churches do. He sees an inverse correlation: the fewer churches that close, the more the denomination declines; the more churches that close, the more the denomination grows.
Go figure!
When you’ve worked it out you’ll understand the difference between a dynamic movement and a dying institution.
3 Comments
My initial thought is this – the reason increased growth of the evangelical church correlates with the increased closures is simply because they are at least planting churches. Sure some of the ‘plants’ will close (70-80%) but some of the new congregations (around 20-30%) will survive, grow and reproduce. It is these fresh churches that have broken the missional code of their context and have been able to share the timeless truth of the gospel in a clear and culturally appropriate way.
The mainline churches it seems are in deep trouble. Sure they may not be closing as many as the evangelicals now… but just wait, it will come with a landslide unless they become missional again. Missionaries take huge risks to reach those who’re far from God! Some die. The cost is in the short term, but the fruit is seen in the long term harvest. Wouldn’t it be logical to think that it’s the same with denominations?
I agree Will. Like the ski instructor said, “If you’re not falling over, you’re not learning.” But the good news is that the 80% closure rate for new churches is not true:
http://www.steveaddison.net/2007/07/20/why-new-churches-survive.html
That is good news. But even if as Eds research indicates that of his sample 40% of the church plants have closed by year four it still is a pretty high death rate… Scary, risky and exciting. It forces us to be serious about the need for proper prepartion, prayer, coaching, clear expectations and the other things you outlined in :
http://www.steveaddison.net/2007/07/20/why-new-churches-survive.html